The Green Bay Packers are favored by two and a half points right now over the Pittsburgh Steelers in this year’s Super Bowl, and that puzzles me. 

I’m rooting for the Packers, but I can’t believe that they are favored in this game.  Watching the championship weekend made me think that the Packers could get blown out. I have a case for both teams, but there’s plenty of time left for dissecting this game more than anyone should.  

For now, I’ll just look at what I saw in the playoffs that makes me wonder why the early betting lines favor the Packers. 

Packers coaching:

Mike McCarthy is a good coach, but so are Andy Reid and Les Miles. McCarthy has an interesting form of clock management but more importantly, he plays the new and improved version of Marty-ball. 

McCarthy and the Packers could have easily put the Eagles away. There’s no reason that game should have come down to a last second play. The Eagles were dead to rights and then Dom Capers stopped blitzing and the Eagles got right back into it. 

Worse yet, the Packers let Caleb Hanie lead the Bears back into it. It’s Caleb Hanie! Why weren’t the Packers blitzing on every single play? 

Steelers coaching:

Mike Tomlin isn’t afraid to win. Tomlin called a pass play on third and eight to put the Jets away on Sunday, and that’s exactly what happened. Tomlin is the better coach and having Dick Lebeau as your defensive coordinator never hurts. 

Steeler’s opponents:

What do the Packers do that the Jets can’t? Green Bay has a killer secondary. So does New York, but It didn’t help them any. The Packers blitz a lot. The Jets blitz even more. Not to mention that the Steelers played the Ravens as well. I know the Packers have a higher ranked defense, but the Jets and Ravens would have as well if they played two games against Minnesota and Detroit. 

Obviously the Packers have an offense that the Steelers haven’t seen yet. I’m not denying that. Again, I want Aaron Rogers and the Packers to win, but the Steelers defense will have two weeks to prepare. They didn’t see any high-powered offenses this post season, but the bye week tends to benefit the defenses. 

Packer’s opponents:

Atlanta was an impressive win. Philadelphia and Chicago should have been blow outs. The mobility of Cutler and Vick do show that the Packers can stop mobile quarterbacks. Obviously Roethlisberger is a little different but still, the Packers have shown that they can stop that kind of quarterback. 

Gut reaction from last game:

Both teams should have been better than they were. The Steelers put up 24 points in a half then disappeared. The packers only put up 14 points from their offense and an interception return by a lineman sealed the victory. 

I like what Pittsburgh did better. Part of why Pittsburgh stopped scoring is because Rex Ryan and one of the league’s best defenses managed to make necessary adjustments to stopping the Steelers. Conversely, the Packers got an easier path in the second half when Cutler went out and instead of putting the game away they let the Bears hang around. 

At this point I’m still rooting for the Packers, as is most of the nation, but I can’t imagine why a victory by them wouldn’t be an upset. 

Email: Tom Hesse